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油价暴跌阴谋论流行:美国和沙特要把俄罗斯弄死

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019年07月23日 06:59:18
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澳洲幸运5登录平台直招龙虎代理客服QQ【3512✰280158】诚招代理【在线开户网址um996.com】龙虎和龙虎1赔2.211合1赔9.95,定位胆1赔9.95腾讯分分彩,5分,10分彩,最高返水100反9快,最高赔率,正规信誉大平台平台24h提供注册及登录。油价暴跌阴谋论流行:美国和沙特要把俄罗斯弄死

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(  据)(南)(华)(早)(报)(中)(文)(网)(报)(道)(,石)(油)(行)(业)(内)(发)(生)(的)(任)(何)(事)(情)(,很)(多)(都)(可)(以)(用)(阴)(谋)(论)(来)(解)(释)(。最)(近)(油)(价)(暴)(跌)(也)(不)(例)(外)(。
  就)(连)(《纽)(约)(时)(报)(》(TheNewYorkTimes)社)(论)(也)(刊)(登)(了)(汤)(玛)(斯)(弗)(里)(德)(曼)((ThomasFriedman)讨)(论)(阴)(谋)(论)(的)(文)(章)(。这)(位)(前)(中)(东)(记)(者)(最)(近)(一)(篇)(专)(栏)(中)(发)(问)(:“这)(是)(我)(的)(幻)(想)(?还)(是)(一)(场)(全)(球)(石)(油)(战)(真)(的)(已)(经)(爆)(发)(?一)(方)(是)(美)(国)(和)(沙)(特)(阿)(拉)(伯)(,另)(一)(方)(是)(俄)(罗)(斯)(和)(伊)(朗)(。”
  接)(着)(他)(自)(问)(自)(答)(:“是)(的)(”,并)(认)(为)(美)(国)(和)(沙)(特)(阿)(拉)(伯)(正)(试)(图)(将)(主)(要)(依)(赖)(石)(油)(收)(入)(的)(对)(手)(伊)(朗)(和)(俄)(罗)(斯)(置)(于)(死)(地)(。
  我)(们)(已)(经)(得)(知)(,美)(国)(总)(统)(奥)(巴)(马)(曾)(和)(伊)(朗)(总)(统)(秘)(密)(商)(讨)(打)(击)(伊)(斯)(兰)(国)(大)(计)(。所)(以)(,美)(国)(国)(务)(院)(可)(能)(已)(经)(给)(弗)(里)(德)(曼)(打)(电)(话)(,并)(说)(:“听)(着)(,你)(这)(个)(家)(伙)(……”
  与)(此)(同)(时)(,阴)(谋)(论)(这)(一)(观)(点)(在)(俄)(罗)(斯)(也)(很)(流)(行)(。俄)(罗)(斯)(《真)(理)(报)(》(Pravda)的)(重)(要)(新)(闻)(就)(是)(:《奥)(巴)(马)(希)(望)(沙)(特)(摧)(毁)(我)(们)(的)(经)(济)(》。
  沙)(特)(是)(剩)(余)(产)(能)(最)(多)(的)(产)(油)(国)(,历)(来)(都)(是)(左)(右)(石)(油)(市)(场)(的)(力)(量)(。油)(价)(出)(现)(泡)(沫)(,沙)(特)(就)(增)(产)(遏)(制)(价)(格)(升)(势)(,价)(格)(下)(跌)(就)(减)(产)(支)(撑)(市)(场)(。
  今)(年)(夏)(天)(结)(束)(时)(油)(价)(开)(始)(暴)(跌)(,市)(场)(普)(遍)(预)(期)(沙)(特)(如)(往)(常)(一)(样)(减)(产)(。但)(事)(与)(愿)(违)(,沙)(特)(上)(月)(宣)(布)(将)(致)(力)(“维)(持)(市)(场)(份)(额)(”,不)(会)(减)(产)(支)(持)(油)(价)(。
  虽)(然)(人)(们)(不)(禁)(会)(从)(政)(治)(角)(度)(去)(解)(读)(沙)(特)(的)(做)(法)(,但)(它)(这)(个)(战)(略)(也)(可)(以)(多)(个)(经)(济)(理)(由)(去)(解)(释)(。
  最)(明)(显)(的)(理)(由)(就)(是)(,对)(沙)(特)(来)(说)(,美)(国)(不)(再)(是)(一)(个)(极)(度)(尴)(尬)(的)(政)(治)(盟)(友)(了)(。以)(往)(,美)(国)(一)(直)(大)(量)(进)(口)(沙)(特)(原)(油)(,但)(现)(在)(出)(现)(“叶)(岩)(油)(革)(命)(”了)(,美)(国)(从)(沙)(特)(的)(大)(客)(户)(变)(成)(了)(主)(要)(竞)(争)(对)(手)(。
  由)(于)(叶)(岩)(油)(的)(生)(产)(成)(本)(高)(于)(沙)(特)(采)(油)(成)(本)(,应)(对)(竞)(争)(的)(战)(略)(之)(一)(就)(是)(压)(低)(油)(价)(,迫)(使)(叶)(岩)(油)(生)(产)(商)(退)(出)(市)(场)(。目)(前)(,沙)(特)(一)(直)(不)(能)(使)(用)(这)(一)(战)(术)(,因)(为)(基)(于)(许)(多)(供)(应)(和)(政)(治)(因)(素)(,油)(价)(一)(直)(高)(于)(叶)(岩)(油)(生)(产)(成)(本)(。
  就)(在)(最)(近)(几)(个)(月)(,全)(球)(石)(油)(市)(场)(供)(应)(意)(外)(大)(增)(,但)(需)(求)(锐)(减)(。从)(6月)(份)(以)(来)(,油)(价)(已)(经)(下)(跌)(大)(约)(25%,上)(周)(更)(跌)(破)(每)(桶)(80美)(元)(。有)(人)(认)(为)(,沙)(特)(已)(抓)(住)(这)(个)(机)(会)(,对)(叶)(岩)(油)(生)(产)(商)(出)(击)(。
  这)(个)(既)(简)(单)(又)(合)(理)(的)(说)(法)(,最)(近)(在)(德)(克)(萨)(斯)(州)(被)(广)(泛)(认)(同)(。
  但)(根)(据)(高)(盛)(的)(看)(法)(,沙)(特)(现)(在)(才)(出)(手)(已)(经)(太)(晚)(了)(,因)(为)(现)(实)(情)(况)(比)(较)(复)(杂)(。
  高)(盛)(分)(析)(师)(达)(米)(安)(库)(尔)(瓦)(兰)((DamienCourvalin)署)(名)(的)(研)(究)(报)(告)(称)(,叶)(岩)(油)(产)(量)(一)(旦)(超)(过)(沙)(特)(剩)(余)(产)(能)(,沙)(特)(就)(无)(法)(影)(响)(叶)(岩)(油)(行)(业)(。
  报)(告)(称)(,美)(国)(叶)(岩)(油)(产)(能)(巨)(大)(,意)(味)(着)(沙)(特)(不)(再)(是)(左)(右)(市)(场)(价)(格)(的)(垄)(断)(者)(,而)(是)(降)(到)(“主)(导)(厂)(商)(”的)(地)(位)(。根)(据)(经)(济)(学)(理)(论)(,沙)(特)(应)(该)(更)(重)(视)(市)(场)(份)(额)(,不)(要)(太)(在)(意)(油)(价)(走)(势)(,而)(这)(正)(是)(目)(前)(的)(情)(况)(。
  高)(盛)(认)(为)(,沙)(特)(行)(为)(的)(转)(变)(虽)(然)(出)(人)(意)(表)(,但)(叶)(岩)(油)(的)(生)(产)(一)(旦)(能)(持)(续)(下)(去)(,这)(种)(行)(为)(的)(转)(变)(就)(与)(“主)(导)(厂)(商)(/竞)(争)(边)(缘)(”的)(市)(场)(结)(构)(经)(济)(理)(论)(不)(谋)(而)(合)(了)(。
  如)(沙)(特)(现)(在)(减)(产)(支)(撑)(价)(格)(,美)(国)(就)(可)(以)(扩)(大)(叶)(岩)(油)(生)(产)(攻)(其)(要)(害)(,阿)(拉)(伯)(半)(岛)(势)(必)(落)(得)(原)(油)(收)(入)(减)(少)(的)(下)(场)(。
  沙)(特)(目)(前)(可)(以)(采)(用)(的)(战)(略)(,就)(只)(有)(迫)(使)(美)(国)(成)(为)(另)(一)(个)(原)(油)(供)(应)(国)(。
  当)(然)(,如)(此)(复)(杂)(的)(阴)(谋)(论)(,很)(容)(易)(让)(人)(忘)(记)(:即)(便)(高)(盛)(和)(其)(他)(投)(行)(,之)(前)(都)(没)(有)(预)(测)(到)(油)(价)(会)(出)(现)(这)(个)(情)(况)(。
  阴)(谋)(论)(讲)(得)(太)(多)(了)(。“主)(导)(厂)(商)(/竞)(争)(边)(缘)(”这)(个)(说)(法)(极)(具)(说)(服)(力)(,而)(且)(非)(常)(重)(要)(,不)(容)(忽)(视)(。
  因)(为)(,若)(这)(个)(说)(法)(是)(对)(的)(,它)(的)(意)(义)(将)(非)(常)(重)(大)(。这)(意)(味)(着)(油)(价)(下)(跌)(不)(会)(是)(昙)(花)(一)(现)(的)(现)(象)(,而)(全)(球)(两)(大)(原)(油)(供)(应)(国)(之)(间)(将)(爆)(发)(频)(繁)(的)(价)(格)(战)(,成)(为)(全)(球)(石)(油)(市)(场)(的)(基)(本)(格)(局)(。
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